as the music industry found the 99-cent
solution to its file-sharing woes?
"Solution" is far too final a term for this business still
very much in flux. But after years of denial and confusion,
belligerence and panic, most of the big record labels have
coalesced around a set of prices at which they will make
almost all of their music available to an ever-expanding array
of legal online services.
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A major step toward a legal mass market for online music
came last week when America Online started offering its first
online music service to its 27 million members. AOL's plan
roughly matches the terms and pricing that have evolved over
the last 18 months by about half a dozen other paid music
services.
They all now charge $9 or $10 a month for customers to
listen to a pool of about 250,000 songs online, using a
technology called streaming. And they charge about 99 cents to
download a song and copy it onto a CD, where it can be played
in a car or on a home stereo, or converted to a computer file
format like MP3 to be shared with others (legally or not).
Other variations have also evolved. AOL's service, and
others, include an unlimited number of what are known as
tethered downloads, where songs can be copied onto a computer
and played offline, for example, by a traveling laptop user.
(The tethering means a subscriber can listen to the downloads
on no more than two computers, and cannot copy the files to
other devices or send them to other people.) And others offer
variations on Internet radio, where users can pick genres or
even specific artists to listen to online.
These options, along with the expanding pool of songs,
finally have created online services that might have a chance
of appealing to consumers and luring at least some from the
free file-sharing services like KaZaA.
"We are at a crossover point," said Rob Glaser, the chief
executive of RealNetworks
and the chairman of MusicNet, which operates an online music
service sold by RealNetworks and AOL. "Everyone doesn't agree
on everything, but everyone agrees on enough things that we
can start putting products in the market."
This agreement is also helping to frame some of the
difficult questions the music industry must confront as it
moves, however slowly, into a post-CD world. It is unclear so
far whether the dominant digital business model will be
selling downloads or renting access to a full catalog. It is
clear that consumers are more interested in buying one song at
a time than entire albums, an audience preference that is
likely to mean major changes for the way the recording
industry produces music. What those songs are worth in the
long run is very much up in the air — except everyone agrees
that eventually the hottest hit and the stalest oldie will not
both be worth 99 cents.
But for now at least, the $10-a-month and 99-cent-a-song
price list is letting the marketing side of the business take
over from the deal makers. And Internet users will start to
see increasing promotion for the first time for the online
music services.
Listen.com, a privately held service, has attracted quite a
bit of attention by discounting the price of burning songs
onto CD's to 49 cents, from 99 cents, until March 31. And
Internet service providers, including AOL, are looking to
bundle stripped-down versions of these music services with
their high-speed, or broadband, offerings.
The industry has come a long way since the first legal
downloading services were introduced at the end of 2001. Back
then Napster, the hugely popular file-sharing service had just
been shut down by the courts. With a sense that the threat of
free swapping had subsided, the big labels set up paid
services, trying to preserve all sorts of advantages for
themselves.
For one, the labels split into two groups. Sony
and Universal, the two largest labels, created PressPlay.
Warner, Bertelsmann and EMI along with RealNetworks, created a
rival, MusicNet. Neither had access to music of their rival's
owners.
Both offered limited numbers of songs that could be
listened to online, or through tethered downloads. Only
PressPlay allowed songs to be copied onto CD's or portable
music players, and only in limited numbers.
Consumers spurned the first services. And indeed America
Online refused to introduce the first generation of MusicNet,
even though it is part owned by its corporate cousin Warner
Music (both part of AOL
Time Warner).
But as the music industry fiddled, the file-swapping masses
were burning more free CD's than ever.
"After Napster shut down, the music-sharing community
reassembled like the cyborg in `Terminator,' " Mr. Glaser
said. "It was much more rapid and much more organized than
anyone expected."
Indeed, far more people use KaZaA, the largest of the
file-sharing services, than ever used Napster. And sales of
recorded CD's kept on falling, declining 9 percent in
2002.
So the music companies stopped jockeying for advantage in
the music services they owned, and stopped worrying so much
about how the paid services would cannibalize their CD sales
and started searching for something — anything — that music
lovers would actually pay for.
EMI, for instance, first focused on receiving a share of
the profits of any online service selling its music, and by
the end of last year decided to sell its music to most any
online service.
"We moved to the notion that we are a content company and
our content will have the greatest value for us and our
artists if it's ubiquitously available and we enable the
maximum number of business models to thrive," said John Rose,
an executive vice president of EMI.
So EMI, which owns part of MusicNet, decided to license its
music to PressPlay, Listen.com and others. By the end of last
year, all of the labels were available on all of the
services.
The music services, meanwhile, were able to use their lack
of success to persuade the labels to allow them to offer
unlimited streaming and more flexible downloads.
"The industry over the last year has developed a much
greater understanding of the viability of this market," said
Michael Bebel, chief executive of PressPlay. "We are at a
point where a set of fundamental economics has emerged."
A basic wholesale price structure is coming together that
online services can use to create product offerings. For
example, a download of a song, with a suggested retail price
of 99 cents, has a wholesale cost of about 65 cents from the
labels, according to music executives.
The streaming services and tethered downloads have a more
complicated price structure. Basically, the services pay
between two-tenths of a cent and a penny to the label every
time a user listens to a song. But there are monthly
guarantees to the labels that together make the minimum
monthly cost for music licenses to offer an unlimited
streaming service about $5, according to music executives.
Internet radio is far cheaper for the online services to
offer, costing stations seven-one hundredths of a penny a song
for each listener, under a royalty arrangement the federal
government set last year. And the services like MusicMatch's
Radio MX that let users choose the artist they want to listen
to but not the song, have a wholesale price that is higher
than regular Internet radio and less than services that let
users pick each song.
"We found demand drops off quickly after about $5 month,"
said Dennis Mudd, the chief executive of MusicMatch. Indeed,
Radio MX, which has $2.95 and $4.95 a month options, has
120,000 subscribers, more than MusicMatch and PressPlay
combined, according to analysts estimates. (Neither releases
their subscriber counts, but they admit they are small.)
There is quite a debate about whether $9.95 (or $8.95 on
AOL) is the right price for the unlimited streaming
services.
Paul Vidich, an executive vice president of the Warner
Music Group, argues that a service that lets users only listen
to music — not copy it onto a CD or other device — is likely
to be offered free with a broadband Internet subscription.
"At the end of the day we will invite people to listen
without charging an admission fee," he said. "We are in the
business of selling songs for people to own."
But others argue that in a world where stereo systems and
even cars would be hooked up to the Internet with access to
every possible song, no one will need to buy any music to
keep. If that is true, the value of a monthly music
subscription could be far more than $10.
The price of the songs themselves is also very much in
question. At first, the labels tried to sell songs for as much
as $2.99 each. But a series of experiments showed that
consumers were not interested until the price hit 99 cents.
That appears to resonate because it is in line with a 12-song
CD that costs $15.
For simplicity's sake, the labels started by charging the
same price for all their songs. But they are already working
on plans to charge more for some and less for others. EMI, for
example, is charging a premium of 50 to 75 percent for hot
songs when they are released to download services before the
albums are available in stores. And others are considering
selling older titles in their back catalogs at a discount.
Moving forward, this emphasis on selling one song at a time
may substantially hurt the industry. Since the the demise of
the two-song 45 r.p.m. record a quarter-century ago, the
recording industry has generally been able to charge for a
full album on a CD — even if the consumer only wanted a song
or two.
But Mr. Rose of EMI argued that the big issue for the music
industry is not the subtleties of whether people buy songs or
albums, but finding something that music lovers will pay
anything for at all. And there is money to be made in volume,
he said.
"If all the consumers who pirate tracks today bought them
for a buck, that would be a $5 billion a month business," Mr.
Rose said, noting that that is twice the size of the music
industry today.