ERRIT VOOREN braved an icy Manhattan
morning last week to press his search for just the right new
computer. It had to be powerful, crammed with hundreds of
megabytes of memory, and have enough hard-drive space to hold
a vast music library and hours upon hours of digital
video.
For Mr. Vooren, a 40-year-old native of the Netherlands who
moved to New York 16 years ago to pursue acting and visual
art, his new computer essentially had to do what his old one
could barely manage: handle the latest high-performance
programs to help him edit short films in his Brooklyn
apartment, where he recently started a business, Reels 4
Artists. A DVD burner was essential, too, to save the video
onto disks.
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"Smoke was coming out of the back of my computer," at least
in the figurative sense, he recalled. "What I was doing with
it was more than it could. It was just too much for it."
He replaced his aging Apple
PowerBook G3, which ran on a single 400-megahertz processor,
with a $2,000 Apple Power Mac G4, which uses two processors,
each running at more than twice the power of his old
computer's central processor. A 17-inch, $700 flat liquid
crystal display replaced his old tube-based monitor.
It is shoppers like Mr. Vooren, and their demanding needs,
that personal-computer makers hope will end their sales
doldrums.
For the first two decades of the PC era, a fairly steady
cycle prevailed: a succession of innovations (like the
spreadsheet), opportunities (like getting on the Internet) or
new operating systems (like Windows 95) drove waves of
computer buying as each generation's processors, memory and
hard drives proved unequal to new tasks.
But after peaking in 2000 at 16.4 million, the number of
computers sold in the United States has declined two years in
a row, to an estimated 13.8 million last year, according to
the Consumer Electronics Association.
Consumers "just had no reason to buy," said Justin
Udelhofen, a research assistant for Needham & Company. The
advent of the World Wide Web stimulated PC sales in the
1990's, Mr. Udelhofen said, but by 2000 that buying cycle had
played out, along with the economic boom.
Now the elements may be in place to inspire a new wave of
interest in upgrading. As the average price of a new PC
continues to fall - to $835 last year, roughly half the outlay
of six years earlier - an army of power-hungry software
programs are beginning to explode the boundaries of what those
computers can do.
Those who see the tide turning make this case:
high-performance applications like Microsoft's
Windows XP Media Center Edition are transforming computers
into ever more sophisticated music studios, digital darkrooms
and video-editing bays - even so-called entertainment servers
that can record and play back television shows with the touch
of a special remote control.
But such uses require up-to-date operating systems and
processors. And the very volume of digital photos and music
that consumers are using PC's to store and transfer to and
from other devices is also feeding a demand for bigger hard
drives. With factors like those, the electronics association
is projecting a modest increase in sales this year, to 14.3
million.
Some computer industry analysts, however, warn that it is
likely to take more than flashy new applications to lift
computer sales significantly anytime soon.
Andrew J. Neff, an analyst at Bear, Stearns & Company,
said it was too early to see now, but that an upturn in
computer sales would be more apt to happen when broadband and
wireless computing becomes more prevalent as well as home
networking of computers sharing those high-speed connections.
"It's never one thing," he said, "but a combination of things
that drive the market."
Still, as more software makes fuller use of late-model
operating systems like Windows XP and Mac OS X, the industry
seems optimistic about an eventual effect on PC sales.
"An ever increasing multitasking lifestyle and a set of
killer applications in music and video as stand-alone products
are definitely driving greater appreciation for power," said
Ralph Bond, Intel's
consumer education manager. He said that owners of low-powered
computers only three to five years old often face a phenomenon
he calls the "multimedia oven": the computer becomes so
overwhelmed by a power-intensive task like making a music CD
that it cannot do much else for an extended period.
Mr. Bond said consumers were growing impatient with having
to "give up the machine for some kind of intense activity."
The newest Intel Pentium 4 class microprocessors, for example,
have more than enough power at two to three gigahertz to
perform several intense tasks simultaneously, he said.
This year Intel is also introducing a technology called
hyperthreading, which was first used on commercial servers.
Hyperthreading is designed to boost computer performance
significantly by handling software instructions as if the PC
had two processors rather than one.
The effect of all this processing power, Mr. Bond said,
will be "going from frustration to fun."
Kevin Wasielewski, vice president for marketing at
Alienware, a maker of high-end computers that are a favorite
of hard-core game players, said his company experienced a
spike in sales with the release of any hot game that pushed
the limits of current computers. "We have people waiting for
the release of Doom 3 before they buy their next game PC," Mr.
Wasielewski said.
Steve Thomas, a spokesman for Cakewalk, a Boston-based
company that specializes in developing software for creating
music and sound, agreed: "Faster is always better."
"The more horsepower of the processor and memory, the more
unlimited possibilities are afforded the user," Mr. Thomas
said.
He pointed to his company's latest virtual music studio,
called Project 5, which is to reach store shelves late this
month. Project 5, which allows even non-musicians to create
rich, multi-tracked CD's from hip-hop to electronica to jazz,
will work on computers with no more than 800-megahertz
processors and 256 megabytes of random access memory. But Mr.
Thomas said that computers with twice the power and memory
would give users a far more satisfying experience.
"You need the hardware to do it," he said.
And more hardware is available for less money. Venancio
Figueroa, a spokesman for Dell
Computer, said that a Dell computer selling for $999 in
January 2002 had a 1.7 gigahertz processor, 256 megabytes of
RAM and a 20-gigabyte hard drive. For the same price this
year, Mr. Figueroa said, a Dell customer could expect a 2.4
gigahertz process with 512 megabytes of RAM and a 30-gigabyte
hard drive, along with other extras.
"Our view of what we're seeing here is not so much a price
decrease, but a technology and performance increase," he said.
In Dell's case, that also means a sales increase in raw
numbers: the company recently reported that 38 percent more
units were sold in the fourth quarter of last year than a year
earlier.
Carlos Arriaga, co-founder and chief technology officer of
Digital-Reign, a Web site development company in Los Angeles,
said he was seeing signs of a new techno-lust among shoppers.
"Every time I go to Best Buys, there have to be dozens of
people buying computers to take home," Mr. Arriaga said. "It's
not like they're geeks; they are people buying for home
offices. You see mothers with children, husbands and wives,
buying computers to run their home entertainment, to work with
their photographs and things like that."
Here is a look at some of the potential uses for those
computers.
Entertainment
Home computers that can record and replay movies and
television programs from cable and satellite signals have been
around for years. But they have largely been the purview of
enthusiasts who purchased expensive, high-performance graphics
cards and retrofitted their PC's to operate as digital video
recorders. Even then, low-powered computers need not
apply.
After noticing that consumers were increasingly using their
home computers for music, pictures and video, Microsoft
engineers created Windows XP Media Center Edition. It is an
all-in-one approach that marries a variety of hardware
components with enhancements to the Windows XP operating
system.
"It is connected and enables media to go to lots of
places," Joe Belfiore, general manager of Windows eHome
division of Microsoft, said of the Media Center.
The system, licensed to some two dozen computer makers,
comes with an infrared remote control that directs the PC -
either on its monitor or on a television set elsewhere to
which it is hard-wired - to display digital photos or video,
or even programs and movies captured from television with the
PC's own tuner card. It also offers functions like those found
on TiVo
and other digital television recorders, like pausing live
action.
The high-powered Media Center computers, some of which
feature Intel's new hyperthreading capability, can also play
back digital music on the computer itself or on a linked
stereo system, all while performing standard computer
functions.
Sony
makes a similar system called a Giga Pocket for its VAIO
series of desktops. A $1,600 model has a 2.66-gigahertz
Pentium 4 processor, one gigabyte of RAM, DVD-RW and DVD-ROM
drives and a 120-gigabyte hard drive.
PC Games
When Wolfenstein 3D became a favorite among computer game
players in the early 1990's, all of its programming fit on a
1.44-megabyte diskette and played on pre-Pentium computers.
Recently that World War II-themed classic from Id Software was
reborn as Return to Castle Wolfenstein. It now requires, at a
minimum, computers with Pentium II processors and more than
500 times as much storage space - a full 800 megabytes on the
hard drive - for its programming.
State-of-the-art computer games have long pushed consumers
to upgrade their computers so they could literally stay in the
game. Little has changed, said Mr. Wasielewski of Alienware,
which promotes its PC's as "the ultimate gaming machine."
The machines are custom-made to take advantage of the
latest, most sophisticated components, like high-performance
graphics cards and processors, and can typically cost from
$2,500 to $3,500.
Mr. Wasielewski said his current customers were waiting for
Doom III (also by Id Software) to be released before they
bought their next PC's. Spokesmen for Id have indicated that,
unlike many games that aim for a mass market, the latest
version of this spooky, futuristic battle game would aim
higher, testing the limits of personal computers.
Unreal II: The Awakening, published this month by Infogrames
Entertainment, is not unusual in its PC requirements: more
than two gigabytes of hard-drive space and at least a
two-gigabyte processor. A high-end graphics card, a Nvidia
GeForce4, is recommended along with a computer that can
produce Dolby sound.
Photos
One of the fastest-growing segments of the consumer
electronics market in the last few years has been digital
cameras: the Consumer Electronics Association projects that
more than 11 million will be sold this year. And practically
all digital cameras depend on the power of personal computers
to edit, store, display and print their pictures.
But managing and organizing hard drives brimming with photo
files has become daunting. New tools like Photoshop Album by
Adobe are designed to make that much easier, says Johnnie
Manzari, user interface designer for Adobe.
The software can handle tens of thousands of photo files,
quickly sorting and grouping them by the date they were taken.
Each picture can also be given simple tags and then organized
or individually retrieved by the tags assigned. The program,
which works best on Pentium III-class computers and higher
with at least 128 megabytes of RAM, also helps fix photo flaws
and archive photos on CD's and DVD's.
At a more basic level, Microsoft and Apple have
incorporated digital photo management suites into their latest
operating systems, Windows XP and Mac OS X. Neither will run
on lower-powered computers.
Video
For capturing and editing digital video images, Apple's
Final Cut Pro 3, which runs best on high-performance personal
computers, is practically an industry standard. For
Windows-based computers, Mr. Bond, Intel's consumer education
manager, gives Pinnacle Studio Version 8 high marks for giving
Hollywood-type editing tools to weekend filmmakers. Pinnacle
Systems recommends that Pinnacle Studio be used on
computers with at least a one-gigahertz processor and 256
megabytes of RAM and a high-end graphics card.
Other notable programs include Adaptec's
VideOh!, the Ulead DVD MovieFactory 2, and Roxio's
Easy CD and DVD Creator 6, a hard-drive-hungry suite of
programs that can manage computer data backups, digital music,
digital photos and video.
Kathryn Kelly, a spokeswoman for Roxio, said the product,
released two weeks ago, was intended for novice-to-average
computer users. Nonetheless, she said, "you definitely want to
have a fast machine to do a lot of the video and photo
work."
Music
Just as digital recording and mixing have invaded
professional recording studios, digital music studios in a box
are steadily finding converts among home-computer users who
are learning that they can make music with the click of a
mouse.
Mr. Bond said that while many of the newest music studio
programs would run on Pentium III computers as well as more
powerful Pentium 4's, users should "be prepared to wait" to
hear the results on a slower machine. Multitrack mixing and
recording are especially power-hungry, he cautioned, adding
that some of the newest software takes advantage of the latest
processor designs, including Cakewalk's Home Studio and Sonar
2.0 (for more advanced users), Steinberg's Cubase and Nuendo
(for more advanced users).
For best results, Mr. Bond recommends using music-creation
software on the PC in conjunction with U.S.B.-connected
external digital-recording devices - sleek boxes that include
high-performance sound cards and pre-amps like Aardvark's Q10
and M-Audio's Duo.