AN FRANCISCO, June 1 — For almost two decades
the federal government has heavily underwritten elaborate centers to
house the world's fastest supercomputers. The policy has been based
on the assumption that only government money could ensure that the
nation's research scientists had the computing power they needed to
pursue projects like simulating the flow of air around a jet
airplane wing, mimicking the way proteins are folded inside cells or
modeling the global climate.
But now two leading American computer researchers are challenging
that policy. They argue that federal money would be better spent
directly on the scientific research teams that are the largest users
of supercomputers, by shifting the financing to vast data-storage
systems instead of building ultrafast computers.
Innovation in data-storage technology is now significantly
outpacing progress in computer processing power, they say, heralding
a new era where vast pools of digital data are becoming the most
crucial element in scientific research.
The researchers, Gordon Bell and Jim Gray, scientists at Microsoft's
Bay Area Research Center, presented the argument last month in a
meeting of the National Research Council's Computer Science and
Telecommunications Board at Stanford University.
"Gordon and I have been arguing that today's supercomputer
centers will become superdata centers in the future," said Dr. Gray,
an expert in large databases who has been working with some of the
the nation's leading astronomers to build a powerful computer-based
telescope.
The policy challenge spelled out by the Microsoft researchers
comes as a quiet national policy debate over the future of
supercomputing is taking place among experts in scientific,
industrial and military computing.
In February the National Science Foundation Advisory Panel on
Cyberinfrastructure issued a report calling on the nation to spend
more than $1 billion annually to modernize its high-performance
computing capabilities.
Separately, a study completed last year by a group of military
agencies was released in April. Titled "Report on High Performance
Computing for National Security," it calls for spending $180 million
to $390 million annually for five years to modernize supercomputing
for a variety of military applications.
Computer scientists added that the construction of the Japanese
Earth Simulator, which is now ranked as the world's fastest
supercomputer, has touched off alarm in some parts of the United
States government, with some officials advocating even more
resources for the nation's three national supercomputer centers,
located in Pittsburgh, at the University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign and at the University of California at San
Diego.
Whatever decisions the government makes could have vast
implications for computing.
The decision in 1985 to build a group of what were then five
supercomputer centers linked together by a 56-kilobit-per-second
computer network was a big impetus for development of the modern
high-speed Internet, said Larry Smarr, an astrophysicist who is
director of the California Institute for Telecommunications and
Information Technology.
He said that Dr. Bell and Dr. Gray were correct about the
data-centric technology trend and that increasingly the role of the
nation's supercomputer centers would shift in the direction of being
vast archives. Rapidly increasing network speeds would make it
possible to increasingly distribute computing tasks.
Central to the Bell-Gray argument is the vast amount of data now
being created by a new class of scientific instruments that
integrate sensors and high-speed computers.
While the first generation of supercomputing involved simulating
physical processes with relatively small data sets, the tremendous
increase in data storage technology has led to a renaissance in
experimental science, Dr. Gray said.
The nation should forget about financing the world's fastest
computers, he said, and instead turn the nation's attention back
toward science.
"The core of our argument is to give money back to the sciences
and let them do the planning," he said.
Dr. Gray and Dr. Bell, a legendary computer designer who oversaw
the national supercomputer centers for two years during the 1980's
as a director for the National Science Foundation, call their
current approach to computing "information centric" and "community
centric." By rewriting existing scientific programs, they say,
researchers will be able to get powerful computing from inexpensive
clusters of personal computers that are running the free Linux
software operating system. Many scientists are now adapting their
work to these parallel computing systems, known as Beowulfs, which
make it possible to cobble together tremendous computing power at
low cost.
"The supercomputer vendors are adamant that I am wrong," Dr. Bell
said. "But the Beowulf is a Volkswagen
and these people are selling trucks."
The Bell-Gray proposal has been greeted with skepticism from the
supercomputer centers and in some cases from scientists, too.
"I believe the dramatic increase in data the scientific community
is producing will lead to the increasing importance of the
scientific computing centers," said Horst D. Simon, a mathematician
who is the director of the National Energy Research Scientific
Computer Center in Berkeley, Calif.
He said that scientific research projects were turning
increasingly to his computing center to take advantage of its
professional management and technical support for managing their
experiments' data.
Some other computer scientists say that Dr. Bell and Dr. Gray
have correctly identified a fundamental technology trend, but that
they are wrong in stating that the United States no longer needs to
focus on developing the most powerful computers.
"Beowulf clusters are an attractive alternative," said Daniel A.
Reed, director of the National Center for Supercomputing
Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
"However, we still need a national-scale capability at the very high
end."
A number of other scientists said they believed that Dr. Bell and
Dr. Gray were overstating the power of the inexpensive Beowulf
computing clusters.
"I'm not sure I agree with them on which is the cheap commodity
computer and which is the specialized system," said Eric Bloch, a
physicist at the Washington Advisory Group, a Washington-based
science and consulting group, who is a former director of the
National Science Foundation.
He said that supercomputer centers were still vital because they
integrated systems that could be made available to scientific
communities that might use the world's fastest computer if it were
available.