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Last update: May 3, 2004 at 6:44 AM
Study offers new take on sex offendersRandy Furst, Star Tribune
May 3, 2004SEX0503 Last month, state Rep. Kurt Zellers hailed the House of Representatives' passage of legislation he authored that will lock up sex offenders for life without parole when they commit first-degree rape. "It was time for us to send a message to these predators that we will no longer allow them to repeatedly victimize our families and communities," the Maple Grove Republican declared. Fear about sex offenders committing new crimes after being released into the community has haunted the State Capitol this year. However, a major U.S. government study, the largest of its kind ever conducted, indicates that sex offenders, as a group, including violent sex offenders, are less likely to be arrested for new crimes than other released criminals. The study also shows that only about 5 percent of sex offenders are arrested for new sex crimes within three years. That finding is mirrored in Minnesota data. A large international study by a Canadian government agency puts the five-year recidivism rate for sex offenders at 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, other studies cited by legislators say that research based on arrests and convictions underestimate true recidivism rates, because many sex crimes are unreported or unsolved. "The sexual predator has had his last chance in Minnesota," said Rep. Steve Smith, R-Mound, chairman of the judiciary policy and finance committee, who supports the tough new legislation. "We're tired of these acts, and they cannot be permitted or tolerated." The case of kidnapped and murdered University of North Dakota student Dru Sjodin is driving the bill. Alfonso Rodriguez, a released sex offender, has been charged with kidnapping her. Why and how Rodriguez got out has inspired intense debate. But belief is widespread at the Capitol that the release of many incarcerated sex offenders is unconscionable, particularly because of their high likelihood to reoffend. The preamble to the House sentencing bill declares the legislature's finding that sex offenders are "particularly likely to be dangerous after their release from imprisonment." Study says otherwise The study published by the U.S. Department of Justice in November is considered the largest inquiry of its kind ever conducted. It examined case histories of 9,691 male sex offenders who were released in 1994 by 15 states, including Minnesota. The study classified the sex offenders into two groups -- rapists and sex assaulters. Rapists were defined as offenders "convicted of a violent sex crime with forcible intercourse." Sex assaulters were all other sex offenders, which included nonforcible acts with minors. The Justice Department found that of the 3,115 released rapists it studied, 5 percent had a new arrest for a sex crime within the first three years. Of the 6,576 released sexual assaulters, 5.5 percent were arrested for a new sex crime. Overall re-arrest rates for all crimes -- not just sex crimes -- were higher. But "compared to non-sex offenders released from state prison," the report said, "sex offenders had a lower overall re-arrest rate." The overall three-year re-arrest rate for any type of crime was 43 percent among sex offenders, and 68 percent among about 262,000 non-sex offenders. Most of the re-arrests, including those among rapists and sex assaulters, were for nonviolent and nonsexual offenses, such as theft, probation violations or drug offenses. The data from the national report might appear, at first, to be at odds with news accounts about the potential of sex offenders to reoffend. Much of the discussion has centered on so-called Level 3 sex offenders. Those are offenders who are convicted for sex-related offenses, and have been classified by the state corrections department, using a psychological scoring system, as being most likely to reoffend. Among those who score at the highest level, such as Rodriguez, experts say 45 to 75 percent will commit another sex crime, depending on how the data are analyzed. The Justice Department data are similar to data in state reports. According to a report by the Minnesota Department of Corrections, 5 percent of all sex offenders released in Minnesota in 1997, 1998 and 1999 had been arrested for a new sex offense as of 2002. The Canadian study by Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada was a review of 95 separate studies including 42 studies done on sex offenders in the United States, 30 in Canada and the remainder in seven other countries. The study found that the observed sexual recidivism rate was 13.7 percent after five years. Gut feelings Legislators who favor longer sentences for sex offenders cite other studies that suggest higher levels of recidivism. Appearing before a legislative committee in March, Zellers cited a December 2003 report from the Council on Sex Offender Treatment from the Texas Department of Health. The Texas study says recidivism tends to be underestimated because "a sex offender can repeatedly reoffend before he or she is arrested and recidivates." It cites research showing "that the number of subsequent offenses revealed through unofficial sources were 2.4 times higher than the official records." Only 12 to 16 percent of sexual assault victims report the crime, the Texas study says, noting research that shows 95 percent of incarcerated sex offenders in Washington state had committed other sex offenses for which they had not been convicted. One study, the Texas report said, suggests the average sex offender had committed hundreds of offenses. Smith said he was unaware of the Justice Department's lower numbers on recidivism. "My understanding and gut feel is that the Level Three sex offenders on the loose are a lot higher than five percent," Smith said. "Even if it is a five percent recidivism rate, we are not talking about auto theft, or drug dealing. It's taking adult women off the street and using them, raping them, throwing them away and walking away." Heinous crimes "I used to call it the 'crime of the year syndrome,' " said Alan Spear, a former DFL state senator from Minneapolis. "You come back to the Legislature and whatever heinous crime was on the front page of the newspaper got all the attention. This year it is the Sjodin case." Spear calls the current bill "part of an overreaction" to one case. He said Rodriguez fell through the cracks. "I don't think we are going to get a system that is 100 percent foolproof unless you lock everyone up forever." Spear, who was chairman of the crime-prevention committee, said sentences of sex offenders keep getting longer. He said violent sex crimes are usually committed by young men, so sentences of life without parole "doesn't make any sense." "The other aspect that disturbs me," Spear said, "is that if you have life without parole for certain types of sex crimes, which is the most serious penalty we have in Minnesota, that don't involve murder, why would someone who commits rape not murder the victim?" Bianca Martinez, mental health bureau services chief for New Mexico's corrections department, who did a report on the Justice Department study, said the number of sex offenders guilty of a second sex offense "is smaller than people think. "The public perception is that sex offenders are psychopaths and don't respond to treatment ..." she said. She said some argue that many sex crimes aren't reported, but it's hypothetical. "It is true that many people are reluctant to report a rape... When [lawmakers] are making such important decisions about sentencing or civil commitments, you should use factual rather than hypothetical information." New Mexico had a highly publicized case when a pedophile on probation raped and killed a 17-year-old girl, Martinez said. Before implementing new policies, Gov. Bill Richardson created a sex offender board to examine the extent of the problem and to review state laws and sentences and the treatment of sex offenders. "Before your proceed, you look at the literature and the recidivism rates," she said. Zellers said public sentiment is clear. "The vast, vast majority of people from Minnesota and from other states have said they've had enough and it's time to lock these people up for good so they cannot prey on other victims again." Randy Furst is at mailto:%20rfurst@startribune.com. Staff librarian Roberta Hovde did research for this report. |
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