ASHINGTON, Sept. 14 ?The last time leaders named Bush,
Cheney and Powell faced foreign aggression, their challenge was to
marshal a skeptical public, a divided Congress and a reluctant
alliance to fight the Persian Gulf war against a known foe on clear
turf. Now a new President Bush ?and a Dick Cheney and a Colin L.
Powell indelibly shaped by that experience a decade ago ?confront
almost the opposite task.
They face an aroused public, a unified Congress and an
international alliance that is eager to help ?at least on the
surface. But they must find ways to buy enough time and patience to
conduct a new kind of long, 21st-century twilight struggle against a
shadowy enemy ?or many enemies ?in unknown corners around the
world.
"Let me tell you, the only way we can do this and keep the
support of NATO is to clearly identify the tentacles, and then the
octopus, and then the ink-squirter itself, and then gather it all
together and say, `Here they are, and are you ready for what will
really be a total military assault,' " said former Senator Alan K.
Simpson of Wyoming. "At that point, we have to be so sure."
Or as a former national security official from the Clinton years
put it: "The hardest part of this is going to be to convince people
to shut up and be patient."
Early polls suggest that Americans believe the terrorist attacks
in New York and Washington will result in war, and that sizable
majorities would support retaliation, even if innocent people were
killed. The realities and complexities of any actual response seem
all but certain to affect that support, whether the public winds up
confronting American casualties in Afghanistan or civilian deaths
elsewhere.
Vice President Cheney, a former secretary of defense, and
Secretary of State Powell, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, are patient and methodical men. They know the uses of
military force, but, more important, its limitations. They are
engaged in planning a global military campaign, not a quick strike
or a brief battle. They are thinking in terms of years, not
weeks.
And while they balked at marching on Baghdad or toppling Saddam
Hussein at the end of the Persian Gulf war in 1991, they are now
talking about "ending states who sponsor terrorism." Having
witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union, they are fully aware of how
cataclysmic such a change could be.
"This operation isn't going to be quick, or pretty, or certain,"
said Anthony H. Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "To do anything
at all is to invite an element of ambiguity. There's going to be
casualties and collateral damage. That's why we call it war."
All week, senior administration officials have made it clear that
they would not settle for largely symbolic strikes against suspected
terrorist training camps or against a target identified as a
military factory, the way the Clinton administration did after
attacks on United States embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
"I was raised a soldier," Secretary Powell said at his briefing
today. "And you're trained there is the enemy occupying a piece of
ground. We can define it in time, space and other dimensions, and
you can assemble forces and go after it.
"This is different. The enemy is in many places. The enemy is not
looking to be found. The enemy is hidden. The enemy is, very often,
right here within our own country. And so you have to design a
campaign plan that goes after that kind of enemy, and it isn't
always blunt-force military, although that is certainly an option.
It may well be that the diplomatic efforts, political efforts,
legal, financial, other efforts, may be just as effective against
that kind of an enemy as would military force be."
The deputy secretary of defense, Paul D. Wolfowitz, made a
similar point on Thursday when he said, "I think everyone
understands that we have, unfortunately, entered a new era," as he
outlined the administration's commitment to "removing the
sanctuaries, removing the support systems, ending states who sponsor
terrorism." It was Mr. Wolfowitz, as a top Pentagon official under
Mr. Cheney, who devised the elder Bush administration's plan to
solicit contributions from an alliance to help finance the Persian
Gulf war.
In his homily at a prayer service at the Washington National
Cathedral this morning, President Bush described the mission in even
grander terms, saying: "Just three days removed from these events,
Americans do not yet have the distance of history, but our
responsibility to history is already clear: To answer these attacks
and rid the world of evil."
That makes Woodrow Wilson's pledge to make the "world safe for
democracy" sound simple by comparison.
Former President George Bush said Thursday: "It is far more
difficult to fight an enemy who refuses to show his face."
The former senior national security official who asked not to be
identified said there would be nothing easy about the task ahead.
"There'll be the amount of resources we put into domestic
surveillance, balancing that with civil liberties," the official
said. "And then abroad, if we are talking about bin Laden, we're
talking about a network that operates in different places. The
United States, with our allies, has taken down a lot of these cells
in the last two years, many more than people know. Finally, if there
is a military component, we will have to define the objective in an
achievable way."
If, as the weeks wear on, Saddam Hussein is shown to have had any
hand in fostering the attacks, or exploits them for the instability
they create in the Middle East, questions will doubtless resurface
about why the first Bush administration, led by so many of the same
people now in positions of power, did not press on to invade
Iraq.
Besides Mr. Cheney, Mr. Powell and Mr. Wolfowitz, other veterans
of the gulf war have roles in this administration, including
Condoleezza Rice, then a Soviet expert on the National Security
Council staff and now its head, and Richard N. Haass, then the
Middle East expert at the N.S.C. and now director of the policy
planning staff at the State Department.
The current President Bush, whose recent preoccupations have been
the budget and taxes and fears of a faltering national economy, must
also be all too aware, given his father's own example, how much
those problems could still affect his fortunes, whatever his foreign
policy successes or failures. Indeed, some of the biggest challenges
may turn out to be at home.
"The challenge is to take all the pollsters and all the
consultants and put that all aside," said former Senator Bob Kerrey
of Nebraska, who now heads the New School University in New York.
"This is the wealthiest nation on earth, and please don't tell me
that you can't put enough money out there to make certain that men
with hand knives and box cutters can't hijack four American planes
within an hour. Now we know that every airplane that takes off in
America is a bomb, fully loaded. So deal with it. Don't let the
lockbox or ideology or anything else get in the way of that."
Mr. Kerrey, a combat veteran of Vietnam, also pointed out the
psychological challenge for leaders and a public that have been
quick to denounce the attacks as the work of cowards or madmen.
"I condemn it morally, and I do think it was cowardly," Mr.
Kerrey said. "But physically, it was the opposite of cowardly, and
if you don't understand that, then you don't understand the
intensity of the cause and then you're papering over one of the most
important things. There is hatred out there against the United
States, and yes, we have to deal with terrorism in a zero-tolerance
fashion. But there is anger, too, and they ought to have a place for
a hearing on that anger, in the International Court or wherever we
give them a hearing."